Closing in on "The Bambino"

On Tuesday Barry Bonds cranked out career homer number 712, putting him two home runs shy of tying Babe Ruth for second place on the career home run list. Debates are raging all over the sporting world as Bonds nears this plateau. It is a historic mark; many consider Babe Ruth to be the greatest baseball player to ever play the game. To me, this mark doesn't mean much. It is nice to have, just like silver medal in the Olympics is nice to have, but the real money sits with Hank Aaron and his 755 home runs. It is inevitable that Bonds will pass Ruth, if he doesn't hit three more home runs this year (with nearly 140 games remaining on the schedule) the sporting world will be stunned. Bonds even said on his weekly ESPN show, "Bonds on Bonds," that if he were struggling due to injuries in his right knee and elbow that he would retire from the game, regardless of how many homers he has.

This situation does present some fun options though. I think there is a lot of interest with the office pool crowd. I think it would be fun to put a few dollars down on the date that you think Bonds will pass Ruth on. Personally, I think that he catches Ruth at 714 this weekend in Philadelphia, I'll say on Sunday May 7th, when Bonds' Giants take on the Philadelphia Phillies for ESPN's Sunday night baseball. I think he will then pass Ruth with 715 on Wednesday, May 10 in front of his home fans against the Chicago Cubs.

Will Bonds get the ultimate prize and catch Aaron? Probably not. Bonds would need a monster season to get to Hammerin' Hank this year. Bonds needs 43 more home runs to catch Aaron, 44 to pass him. That means 44 plus the 4 he already has would give him a 48 home run season, definitely within reach of the Barry Bonds that sports fans have come to know over the past few years. But Bonds' body is breaking down this year. Injuries and age are catching up to him. He has played in 22 of the Giants 26 games, which means that he is on pace for a 137 game season, if he maintains the rest rate that he is getting. Even though that is a good amount of games, that isn't enough for him to get to the 48 home runs he needs to pass Aaron. Plus, it isn't just about the games; it is about the amount of at-bats he is getting. Often Bonds has been in the game for only one or two at-bats, but still gets credit for playing in the game. Walks factor into this as well; a walk does not count as an at-bat, and Bonds draws more walks than anybody these days. He already has 27 walks in the 22 games he has played this year. Compare this season to his brief stint last season. Due to injury Bonds played in only 14 games in 2005, he had 42 at-bats in those games. This year, as I have said, he has played in 22 games, but has only 52 at-bats. 10 more at-bats in 8 more games in not a normal pace. Normally a player gets 3 to 4 at-bats per game, Bonds should have around 30 more at-bats. I don't think he is going to get enough at-bats to pass Aaron. Bonds will probably wind up with between 30 and 35 homers this season, which would give him between 738 and 743 career home runs. Leaving him tantalizingly close to Aaron. The real question in the Barry Bonds saga is not if he did steroids. It is not if he will pass the Babe. It is not if he will pass Aaron this season. The real question is, will Barry Bonds be able to play next year and be able to hit the 20 or so homers he would need to pass Hammerin' Hank? Only Bonds knows. I don't think his body can hold up that long.

Publish Date: May 3 in the Missourian. 3rd page of the sports section.